Another busy 12 months that will shape the years ahead

It might be far too late for calls of 'happy new year' and well-meant resolutions, but since this is my first Birmingham post column of 2024, I'm going to take a look at 'ones to watch' over the next 11 months, writes Henrietta Brealey.

Here in the region there's a big date for your diary: West Midlands Mayoral Elections on 2nd May. Andy Street will be running again as Conservative candidate with Richard Parker taking up the Labour nomination. Given the wider political atmosphere, expect this to be a very lively campaign for a role that is critical for convening the region, driving regional policy, lobbying government and banging the drum for the West Midlands and much more besides.

Here in Brum, we will continue to see the implications of Birmingham City Council's section 114 notice crystallise under the direction of Max Caller and his panel of Commissioners.

It is going to be a deeply bruising process. Birmingham as a city remains a brilliant place to live work and invest with the fundamentals that make it so - it's uniquely high concentration of high-quality university and further education institutions, the youth and diversity of its population, it's connectivity to the rest of the country and sector strengths across professional services, manufacturing and increasingly tech - still solid.

But there's no denying the unease at the potential long-term impact of a local authority stripped back to the basics and what that means for its capacity to be a key partner and driver in areas from planning to major events and beyond. Not to mention it's support for the most vulnerable in our society.

At the end of year I spoke to Deborah Cadman, CEO of Birmingham City Council on the Chamber podcast CEO Stories. Leading Europe's largest local authority was already considered one of the toughest jobs in local government before the weight of these developments landed. Her remarkable resilience, and genuine passion for seeing Brum succeed as a born and bred Brummie came through loud and clear.

On the plus side, there are an array of brilliant things happening in Birmingham this summer as the city's creative heart shines through with everything from B:Side Festival celebrating 40 years of hip hop to 40 years of Birmingham Jazz Festival and 60 years of Ikon Gallery to Birmingham Big Weekender - the free annual arts festival produced by Birmingham Hippodrome - back and bigger than ever over the summer months.

It's also the 200th anniversary of Cadbury and the 50th anniversary of the formation of the West Midlands - so lots of opportunity for local pride and celebrating this utterly marvellous region.

Something that Birmingham's recently appointed City Curator Alex Nicholson-Evans, knows very well. She's got some rather exciting plans coming together on how we can better shout about this great city and its strengths as a visitor destination – watch this space.  And kudos to Colmore BID who have been the driving force in making this role happen.

Out of the region, there's plenty to watch nationally too as all players gear up for a general election - whenever that may be. Labour are putting the pressure on for a 3 May election.

If not 2 May, then 14 November is another option considered highly probably by a range of pundits. This would put a UK election just over a week after another massive 2024 event - the US elections, which are looking all but confirmed to be a Trump-Biden showdown. At the Chamber, we have a division specifically focused on Transatlantic trade and connections – they’ll be keeping local businesses abreast of what it all means for UK-US trade.

Of course, on a global scale, geopolitical tensions and conflicts have rocketed up businesses’ risk registers this year. But that will have to be another column for another day.

On the plus side, there are still reassuring signs that, while not quite uneventful, 2024 may prove more ‘stable’, at least in some respects, for businesses. While Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) was up slightly to 4.2 per cent in the 12 months to December, it remains significantly down from its 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October 2022. Many are predicting that Bank of England will begin to reduce interest rates form their 15-year high in the latter part of this year. Plus, while the labour market remains very tight and skills shortages abound in key sectors, it appears to be easing from the heights of the post-pandemic ‘re-opening’ and ‘great resignation’.

Through it all, businesses have remained remarkably resilient and confident in their future prospects. Our regular temperature check of local business sentiment, the Greater Birmingham Quarterly Business Report (Q4 2023), revealed that 62% of local businesses are confident that their turnover will increase over the next 12 months and 51% are confident that their profitability will increase.

Over at the Chamber we've got plenty on the go this year. Just next week we'll be launching the interim report of the Business Commission West Midlands. In recent months we, under the steer of our Commissioners and advisory panel, have heard evidence from over 100 local businesses and organisations. The interim report is our summary of 'what they told us' as the key areas holding back business growth and the regions strengths as a place to do business.

We'll then be back in March with a final report, the Commission's roadmap for business growth, setting out recommendations for change regionally and nationally. Expect this to come up a lot in our Mayoral and general election activity over the coming months.

Then on 15 February we're off to champion the best in local business at the Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce awards. We'll be welcoming over 1,000 people to the ICC for the biggest (and in my - let's be honest, totally biased - opinion) best celebration of business excellence in this great region. Last year's Greater Birmingham business of the year was Unity Trust Bank. Who will it be this year? Well with such a competitive field – it’s anyone’s guess. 

There aren't many tickets left or much time to nab them, but if you'd like to see what all the fuss is about get booking.

So, all in all, while we probably all deserve one, it's not looking like 2024 is going to be a boring year by any stretch of the imagination.

Henrietta Brealey is chief executive of Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce

This column first appeared in the Birmingham Post